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"Aquaculture, not the Internet, represents the most promising investment opportunity of the 21st Century."

- Peter Drucker, Management Expert & Economist

2015-03-22

Feeding 9 billion by 2050 - Putting fish back on the menu: The contribution of aquaculture to future fish supply

Springer Velag has recently in "Food Security The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food" publishes an original paper: Feeding 9 billion by 2050 - Putting fish back on the menu (10.1007/s12571-015-0427-z)

Abstract:

Fish provides more than 4.5 billion people with at least 15 % of their average per capita intake of animal protein. Fish's unique nutritional properties make it also essential to the health of billions of consumers in both developed and developing countries. Fish is one of the most efficient converters of feed into high quality food and its carbon footprint is lower compared to other animal production systems. Through fish-related activities (fisheries and aquaculture but also processing and trading), fish contribute substantially to the income and therefore to the indirect food security of more than 10 % of the world population, essentially in developing and emergent countries. Yet, limited attention has been given so far to fish as a key element in food security and nutrition strategies at national level and in wider development discussions and interventions. As a result, the tremendous potential for improving food security and nutrition embodied in the strengthening of the fishery and aquaculture sectors is missed. The purpose of this paper is to make a case for a closer integration of fish into the overall debate and future policy about food security and nutrition. For this, we review the evidence from the contemporary and emerging debates and controversies around fisheries and aquaculture and we discuss them in the light of the issues debated in the wider agriculture/farming literature. The overarching question that underlies this paper is: how and to what extent will fish be able to contribute to feeding 9 billion people in 2050 and beyond?

The contribution of aquaculture to future fish supply

The second element on the supply side is aquaculture. Discussion of the rise of aquaculture has so far largely focused on its contribution to global aquatic animal food supplies, ignoring the resultant changes in species composition of the fishes consumed, how it is farmed, and the implications for food and nutrition security (Kawarazuka and Béné 2011; UNHRC 2012). As a consequence, our understanding mainly concerns the question of the ability of the aquaculture industry to maintain its rate of growth. In this regard, most of the recent analyses agree that the era of exponential growth is over and while the sector will still continue to grow, the projected rate of growth is expected to decelerate. The main causes of this slower growth are likely to be freshwater scarcity, lower availability of locations for optimal production, and high costs of fishmeal, fish oil and other feeds (FAO 2012). Nonetheless, the World Bank-FAO-IFPRI model suggests this rate will still be sufficient to maintain a steady rise, reaching the point where it will equal global fisheries production by 2030 - around 93 Mt (World Bank 2014) (Fig. 5). Technical innovation, improved farm and animal health management, and improved and more efficient germplasm will be responsible for this increased growth, in combination with the continued expansion of fish-farming. Combined with a projected capture fish production that will remain fairly stable over the 2000-2030 period (see above), the global fish supply is projected to rise to 187 Mt by 2030 (World Bank 2014). These figures are consistent with the projections proposed by OECD-FAO in which the global fish production will reach 181 Mt in 2022, of which 161 Mt would be destined for direct human consumption (OECD-FAO 2013).

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Akvakultur er fisk i kultur! De skal selvfølgelig have det godt og have noget at spise. Du kan fodre fiskene ved at klikke på din mus over fiskedammen!